The Japanese Tsunami: Could We Have Seen It Coming?

The Japanese earthquake and tsunami are enormous tragedies, and inevitably we’re forced to ask whether it would be possible to have seen the tsunami, at least, coming and saved more lives. The answer lies in how tsunamis are detected and warned.

Tsunamis are caused by undersea earthquakes: the disruption on the ocean floor creates massive waves, but not all of them slam into inhabited coastal areas. The Tsunami Warning System is run by 26 countries, including Japan, and works by monitoring seismographs placed at key points in the ocean.

As earthquakes are detected, information is disseminated to the member states, including tsunami watches and tsunami warnings. Unfortunately, this network is only as effective as the time it takes to gather data.

The Sendai earthquake was simply too fast to get any effective warning out. It was detected, and warnings of the earthquake did go out to the Japanese populace, but they had no way of knowing the epicenter of the quake. It turned out to be 81 miles from shore, far enough to trigger a tsunami but close enough to make any warnings useless. The tsunami hit within minutes of being created.

It”s a fair warning: we’re only as safe as our best early warning systems, and those can only do so much.

If you’d like to help with relief efforts, please consider donating to the Red Cross or UNICEF